Figure: Estimates of monthly data for total value added in Switzerland
 

Disaggregation of annual value added (domestic gross value added) in Switzerland
using export index of Federal Custom's office. (rho=0.765)
  Last update
2007-10-04
  Test statistic's p-value (chi-square statistic with one d.f.).
0.0506
  Disaggregated time series estimates using all available information (including forecasts).
31 kB
 
Sample: 1990-2005 , forecasted: 2006 January through 2007 August
     
  NOTE: The implied GDP forecasts for 2007 can be approximated by means of consumer price index deflation.
    The resulting forecast for the current year indicates a slower growth of nominal GDP compared to the forecast by KOF Swiss Economic Institute. Assuming a continuing low inflation rate of 0.4% without an accelaration towards the end of the year the real GDP growth rate would amount to 3.6 percent which compares to 2.8 percent obtained by KOF using the same methodology.
    Table 1: GDP forecasts
   
Who?
annual growth (%)
2005* 2006* 2007
CMK
GDP
2.7
4.9
  
4.0**
real GDP
2.4
3.2
  
-
LIK
1.2
1.1
  
0.4**
real GDP by LIK
1.5
3.8
  
3.6**
KOF
GDP
2.7
4.9
   3.4*
real GDP by LIK
1.5
3.8
  
2.8*
    * Data for 2005 and 2006 from Federal Statistical Office. KOF 2007 forecast as of Autumn 2007 (KOF Analysen)
** Forecast based on estimates for January to August 2007
     
  Literature: Working Paper 134
  History 2007-07-31
    2007-08-23
     
  Comments After the last data revision the disaggregation of industrial production requires a complete overhaul of the analysis. Until its completion I abstain from updating the old results.