GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2008-05-06

     
   

Sample: 2000(2)-2007(4), Forecast: 2008(1) through 2008 (2)

    Table 1: GDP forecasts
   
         
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
  forecast standard error realisation
2007(4) 3.65 - 3.6
2008(1) 3.17 0.55 -
2008(2)
2.14 0.77 -
    Sources: Own calculations, realised GDP: seco (March 2008 release)
  Previous update
2008-01-24
  Standard error of regression
0.600
  Literature:
see here
  Business cycle data 2008-04-30
  History
2008-01-24 release
    2007-11-30 release
    First release

 

  Illustration
  Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP and the KOF barometer: Ex-ante forecast properties
 

Picture

 

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