GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2010-02-28

     
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
   
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
forecast
standard error
realisations*
2009(2)
-2.66
-
-2.0
-2.4
2009(3)
-0.83
-
-
-1.3
2009(4)
0.92
0.45
-
-
   

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2009(4), before that date fitted values, *realised GDP: seco (left: September 01, 2009 ; right : November 30, 2009 releases)

Sample: 2000(2)-2009(3), Forecast: 2009 (4)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

SPECIAL FEATURE
  Quantification of Qualitative Data conference June 24 - 26, 2010 in Zurich. Submit a paper, attend, support!
     
    Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP and the KOF barometer: Ex-ante forecast properties
   

Surprise index - GDP forecast

 

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NOTES  
Previous update
2009-11-26
Standard error of regression*
0.673
Literature:
Business cycle data Please ask for your personal copy!
History 2009-11-26 release
  2009-08-24 release
  Complete release history
  First release
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release
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