GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2013-05-15

     
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
C M-K  
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
forecast
standard error
realisations*
2012(3)
1.05
-
1.41
1.2
2012(4)
1.21
-
-
1.4
2013(1)
1.15
0.49
-
-
 

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2013(1), before that date fitted values, *realised GDP: seco releases (left: November 29, 2012, right: February 28, 2013).

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2012 (4), Forecast: 2013 (1)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

   
   
   
  Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties
 

forecast

 

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NOTES  
Previous update
Standard error of regression*
0.910
Literature
Business cycle data Ask for your personal copy.
History
 
 
  2012-05-16 release
  Complete release history
  First release
Next release 2013-08-14
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.
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