GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2015-08-12

     
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
 
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
forecast
standard error
seco estimates*
2014(4)
1.62
-
1.9
2.0
2015(1)
-
-
1.1
2015(2)
0.42
-
-
   

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2015(2), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: March 3, 2015, right: May 29, 2015).

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2015 (1), Forecast: 2015 (2)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

     
    The strong appreciation of the Swiss Franc due to the abolition of the exchange rate floor in January leaves its mark on the Swiss economy also in the second quarter of this year. The «KOF Surprise Indicator» for measuring Swiss economic dynamics declined for the second consecutive time to now -0.035, down from -0.032 in the first quarter 2015. This decrease is significantly smaller than last quarter's which could indicate the abating of the shock wave the strong currency sent through the economy. Accordingly, Swiss value added can be expected to continue its expansion on a low level. Estimating the actual year-on-year expansion of real value added in the Swiss economy by means of the «KOF Surprise Indicator» value obtains a growth rate of 0.6 percent down from 1.7 in the previous period.
     
«home   Published: The «KOF surprise indicator» as a means of temporal disaggregation and forecasting: Internal Validation of Temporal Disaggregation: A Cloud Chamber Approach now available from the Journal of Economics and Statistics. Details»
     
    Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties
   

forecast

 

     
     
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NOTES  
Previous update
Standard error of regression*
0.69
Literature
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History
 
 
 
  Complete release history
  First release
Next release 2015-11-11
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.
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