GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2016-02-17 |
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Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2015(4), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: August 28, 2015, right: December 1, 2015). Sample: 2000 (2) - 2015 (3), Forecast: 2015 (4) Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model. |
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«home | Published: Radical Uncertainty: Sources, Manifestations and Implications argues that radical uncertainty is the outcome of standard market activity. The theoretical findings are corroborated with empirical analyses of asset pricing showing that radical uncertainty is a solution to various asset pricing «puzzles». Therefore, radical uncertainty should form the basis of economic analysis. Details» | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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*Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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