GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2016-05-23 |
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Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2016(1), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: December 1, 2015, right: March 8, 2016). Sample: 2000 (2) - 2015 (4), Forecast: 2016 (1) Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model. |
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«home | Discussed: The puzzle that just isn't shows that a recent attempt (C. Engel: AER 106(2)) to resolve the forward premium «puzzle» fails to pass standard robustness tests. It also explains why this failure does not come as a surprise. Details» | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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*Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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