GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2016-05-23

     
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
 
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
forecast
standard error
seco estimates*
2015(3)
1.32
-
0.8
0.8
2015(4)
-
-
0.4
2016(1)
0.45
-
-
   

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2016(1), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: December 1, 2015, right: March 8, 2016).

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2015 (4), Forecast: 2016 (1)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

     
«home   Discussed: The puzzle that just isn't shows that a recent attempt (C. Engel: AER 106(2)) to resolve the forward premium «puzzle» fails to pass standard robustness tests. It also explains why this failure does not come as a surprise. Details»
     
    Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties
   

forecast

 

     
     
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NOTES  
Previous update
Standard error of regression*
0.74
Literature
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History
 
 
 
  Complete release history
  First release
Next release 2016-08-17
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.
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