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GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification

TEST
   
Release 2017-08-15
 
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast  
 
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
fitted / forecast
standard error
seco estimates*
2016(4)
1.07
-
0.65
0.69
2017(1)
1.31
-
-
1.09
2017(2)
0.44
-
-
 
   

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2017(1), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: December 2, 2016, right: March 2, 2017).

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2016 (4), Forecast: 2017 (1)

Note: Forecast obtained by best nowcasting model.

 
       
   
Forecast update. Despite a minor decrease the «KOF surprise indicator» for measuring Swiss economic dynamics remains at an elevated level. Its first reading of -0.032 for the year 2017, down from -0.022 in the last quarter of 2016, lends credibility to hopes for a continued expansion of the Swiss economy albeit at a moderate rate.
Based on the «KOF surprise indicator» the Swiss economy's year-on-year rate of real expansion amounts to 1.32 percent in 2017, first quarter.
 
   

Special release note: The «KOF surprise indicator» was slightly revised due to micro data corrections. Read why the recent revision of the «KOF surprise indicator» confirms the indicor's unique position as an efficient nowcasting tool for Swiss value added. Details»

 
       
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Special feature: «Target2 and the SNB's policy options» explores why the Target2-«saldo» of the Deutsche Bundesbank may hold an important lesson for the Swiss National Bank's policy options (in German). Details»

 
       
    Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties  
   

forecast

 
       
       
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NOTES    
Previous update
Standard error of regression*
0.63
Literature
Business cycle data download
History
 
 
 
  Complete release history
  First release
Next release 2017-08-16
 
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.  
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