GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2010-08-30
     
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
   
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
forecast
standard error
realisations*
2009(4)
0.92
-
0.6
0.54
2010(1)
2.86
-
-
2.22
2010(2)
2.18
0.45
-
-
   

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2010(2), before that date fitted values, *realised GDP: seco (left: March 2, 2010, right: June 02, 2010 releases)

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2010 (1), Forecast: 2010 (2)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

SPECIAL FEATURE
  Uncertainty - a blind spot in economics Oekonomenstimme.org online publication (in German), English version and background papers background paper now also available!
     
    Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP and the KOF barometer: Ex-ante forecast properties
   

Surprise index - GDP forecast

 
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NOTES  
Previous update
2010-02-28
Standard error of regression*
0.700
Literature:
Business cycle data Please ask for your personal copy!
History 2010-05-21 release
  2010-02-28 release
  Complete release history
  First release
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.
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