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GDP forecast based on
semantic business cycle identification |
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Release
2020-02-19 |
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Figure 1:
Business cycle indicator and Swiss GDP with forecast |
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Forecast
update. The «KOF Surprise Indicator» recovers to a healthy -0.02 (2019 Q2: -0.05) implying a year-on-year expansion of about 1.4 percent in 2019's last quarter. The rate of GDP growth logs 0.8 percent over the course of the year 2019. |
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Table:
Swiss real gross domestic product with
forecast |
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Date |
Year-to-year growth (%) of
Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP) |
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fitted / forecast |
standard error |
seco estimates* |
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2019(2) |
0.66 |
- |
0.25 |
0.18 |
| 2019(3) |
0.23 |
- |
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1.07 |
| 2019(4) |
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0.47 |
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Sources: Own calculations, forecast
for 2019(4), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: September 5, 2019, right: November 28, 2019).
Sample: 2000 (2) - 2019 (3),
Forecast: 2019 (4), SECO data
Note: Forecast obtained by best
nowcasting model. |
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Nowcast.
While virus fears spread in early 2020 the final quarter of last year has promising news in store with the KOF Surprise Indicator bouncing back to -0.03. Helped in part by a weak final quarter in 2018 the 2019q4 Swiss GDP growth estimate amounts to 1.4 percent year-on-year implying an overall satisfactory 0.8 percent growth rate for the whole of 2019. |
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Outlook.
The Swiss economy has adapted rather well to the Franc's appreciation over the past couple of months. The renewd surge in its value due to coronar virus related uncertainty will not help export demand neither will the recent weakness of the German industry. Consequently, deplorable GDP growth will likely stay with us for some time to come. |
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Special feature: Migration - are there any means for remote control?
Migration to Europe features among the main reasons for the rise of extreme right populism not only threatening Western democracies but also altering their shared values of humanity. In order to steer migration away from European shores leaders are now in search for means to remote control migration. My contribution to IFO's Migrationsusursachen bekämpfen (in German) draws lessons from German Unification showing that the right recipe has yet to be found. Read on» |
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*Standard error of regression refers
to baseline model published in the first release. |
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Quarterly
nowcast update. Order your free personal quarterly email
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