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GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification |
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Release 2021-08-30 |
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Figure 1: Business cycle indicator and Swiss GDP with forecast |
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Forecast
update. The second quarter 2021 saw a siginificant surge of the «KOF Surprise Indicator» to -0.018 up from -0.051 (revised) implying a healthy recovery of the Swiss economy. Helped by last year's historic drop in output in the 2nd quarter GDP y-o-y growth logs 5.1 percent (2021 q1: 2.04, revised). |
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Table:
Swiss real gross domestic product with
forecast |
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Date |
Year-to-year growth (%) of
Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP) |
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fitted / forecast |
standard error |
seco estimates* |
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2020(4) |
0.03 |
- |
-1.64 |
-1.62 |
| 2021(1) |
2.04 |
- |
- |
-0.49 |
| 2021(2) |
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0.65 |
- |
- |
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Sources: Own calculations, forecast
for 2021(2), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: Feb 26, 2021, right: June 1, 2021).
Sample: 2000 (2) - 2021 (1),
Forecast: 2021 (2), SECO data
Note: Forecast obtained by best
nowcasting model. |
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Nowcast.
Last year's second quarter took the pandemic's hardest hit with Swiss GDP receding no less than 7.4 percent year-on-year. No wonder, therefore, that Switzerland's normalisation boosts GDP growth rates one year on. |
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The government's lifting of most Corona restrictions apparently opened the door to economic recovery as expected. |
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Outlook.
Corona still dominates economic news world-wide. European, Asian and American economies show a rather mixed picture with regional outbreaks of the pandemic continuing to choke supply chains. |
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Siwtzerland's recovery will not escape these hick-ups and must be expected to slow in the near future. Furthermore, owed to production and transportation bottlenecks inflation is more likely than not to make a comeback which will also weigh on economic growth. |
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Special feature: Forecasting I. Model-based forecasting is a minefield where each step may deliver a devastating surprise. Not using hindsight is among the hardest challanges researchers sometimes fail to rise to. Brigitte Hochmuth of University Erlangen-Nürnberg and co-authors offer an example with their ex-post analysis of German labour market reform that, sadly, has fallen victim to a subtle yet deadly hinsight bias. Read more » |
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Forecasting II. The 26 August first official estimate put 2020 Swiss GDP growth at -2.4 percent. This figure compares favourably to the «KOF Surprise Indicator»-based estimate of as early as 24 February of -2.5 percent. By contrast, SECO's council of expert advisors' first estimate which was published in March amounted to -3.0 percent in line with SECO's own guess of -2.9 percent (26 February) highlighting once again the urgent need for improving official GDP forecasts. Read more » |
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*Standard error of regression refers
to baseline model published in the first release. |
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Quarterly
nowcast update. Order your free personal quarterly email
alert with the latest GDP estimate based on the «KOF surprise
indicator». Subscribe here»
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