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GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification

TEST
   
Release 2018-05-25
 
    Figure 1: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties  
   

forecast

 
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Quarterly nowcast update. Order your free personal quarterly email alert with the latest GDP estimate based on the «KOF surprise indicator». Subscribe here»

       
   
Forecast update. No surprises from the «KOF surprise indicator» for measuring Swiss economic dynamics as it stays put at -0.021 (slightly down from -0.020) in 2018, first quarter. This signal of strength combined with slight upward revisions of recent GDP data boosts the nowcast for the Swiss economy.
 
   
The updated estimate for Swiss real GDP growth based on the «KOF surprise indicator» lifts Swiss output growth to 2.5 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2018.
 
       
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast  
 
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
fitted / forecast
standard error
seco estimates*
2017(3)
1.26
-
1.21
1.25
2017(4)
2.29
-
-
1.87
2018(1)
0.43
-
-
 
   

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2018(1), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: November 30, 2017, right: March 1, 2018).

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2017 (4), Forecast: 2018 (1)

Note: Forecast obtained by best nowcasting model.

 
       
 

Outlook. With the Swiss economy now running at diminised capacity reserves and labour shortages looming, risks of a slowdown start to build up. The recent upward tendency of the Swiss Franc, mixed business cycle news from the European Union, especially Germany, and erratic U.S. trade policy further add to the chances of an end of the current boom.

 
       
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NOTES    
Previous update
Standard error of regression*
0.63
Literature
Business cycle data (csv) download
History
 
 
 
  Complete release history
  First release
Next release 2018-08-15
 
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.  
       
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Special feature I: Fiscal multipliers. Fiscal multipliers could inform policy makers about their policy's impact IF we only knew their values. Unfortunately, theoretical research has created a «fiscal multiplier morass». Read why Leeper et al.'s latest DSGE approach has made matters only worse.

   

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