T

GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification

TEST
   
Release 2017-08-16
 
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast  
 
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
fitted / forecast
standard error
seco estimates*
2016(3)
1.07
-
0.65
0.69
2016(4)
1.31
-
-
1.09
2017(1)
0.40
-
-
 
   

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2017(2), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: March 2, 2017, right: May 31, 2017).

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2017 (1), Forecast: 2017 (2)

Note: Forecast obtained by best nowcasting model.

 
       
   
Forecast update. The «KOF surprise indicator» for measuring Swiss economic dynamics records a slight increase to -0.22 (up from -0.032) in the second quarter of this year. Its recent decline has therefore already stopped which indicates a steady expansion of the Swiss economy. A short-run prediction of Swiss GDP growth based on the «KOF surprise indicator» ahead of this year's major GDP data revision obtains a moderate rate of growth of about 1.2 percent year-on-year.
 
       
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Special features: «From nothing comes nothing» argues that money never is a free good though banks seem to produce it out of thin air (in German). Details»
Finanz und Wirtschaft publishes «The curious laud of the economic mainstream» that wonders why some economists tend to fence off criticism without quoting the critics. Some answers are available (in German) here»

       
    Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties  
   

forecast

 
       
       
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NOTES    
Previous update
Standard error of regression*
0.63
Literature
Business cycle data download
History
 
 
 
  Complete release history
  First release
Next release 2017-11-15
 
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.  
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