Survey data is often gathered as qualitative data for the sake of time and cost efficiency. For any useful interpretation of such data we need to transform it into quantitative data.
Key questions:
Can we improve over existing transformation (that is quantification) methods, and if yes, how?
What can we learn from that data about the economy as a whole and about individual behaviour?
Key asset:
Micro firm level data on identical qualitative and quantitative questions. (See an example.)
Februar, 2012: Surprise indicator evaluated! Read why the KOF surprise indicator does so well in genuine ex-ante forecasting. Also, learn why forecast is not always foercast when paying attention to the fine print
Forecast update. The latest reading of the «surprise index» shows an essentially constant value of -0.02 which indicates the end of the period of accelerating growth. The growth estimate for 2011, second quarter based on the «surprise index» of 2.4 percent in comparison to a year earlier points to an onset of a cyclical slowdown of the Swiss economy.xNEXT update due: Nov 25, 2011
October 15, 2010: Eva Koeberl and Sarah Lein receive the 2010 Young Economist "Isaac Kerstenetzky Award" for their outstanding paper The NIRCU and the Phillips curve.
August 19, 2010: Release of Business Cycle indicator and GDP forecast through 2010, second quarter.