GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2011-02-22
     
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
   
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
forecast
standard error
realisations*
2010(2)
2.63
-
3.37
2.84
2010(3)
2.54
-
-
3.02
2010(4)
3.49
0.49
-
-
   

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2010(4), before that date fitted values, *realised GDP: seco (left: September 02, 2010, right: December 2, 2010 releases)

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2010 (3), Forecast: 2010 (4)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

SPECIAL FEATURE
  Eva Koeberl's and Sarah Lein's awards winning paper The NIRCU and the Phillips Curve - An Approach Based on Micro Data now forthcoming in the Canadian Journal of Economics. Working paper version here available.
     
    Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP and the KOF barometer: Ex-ante forecast properties
   

Surprise index - GDP forecast

 
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NOTES  
Previous update
Standard error of regression*
0.764
Literature:
Business cycle data Please ask for your personal copy!
History 2010-11-29 release
  2010-08-30 release
  2010-05-21 release
  Complete release history
  First release
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.
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