GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2013-02-13
     
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
C M-K  
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
forecast
standard error
realisations*
2012(2)
0.63
-
0.55
0.35
2012(2)
1.10
-
-
1.41
2012(4)
1.28
0.49
-
-
 

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2012(4), before that date fitted values, *realised GDP: seco releases (left: September 1, 2012, right: November 29, 2012) Please also refer to seco's special notes on the new GDP estimates.

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2012 (3), Forecast: 2012 (4)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

   
  SPECIAL FEATURE: The «surprise indicator» goes America! R. Bachmann, S. Elstner and E. Sims demonstrate in a forthcoming AEJ-Macro contribution that the surprise indicator technology works very well also for US data. Read more»
   
  Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties
 

forecast

 
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NOTES  
Previous update
Standard error of regression*
0.920
Literature
Business cycle data Ask for your personal copy.
History
 
  2012-05-16 release
  2012-02-15 release
  Complete release history
  First release
Next release 2013-05-15
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.
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