GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2012-05-16

Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast

Date	Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
	forecast	standard error	realisations*
2011(3)	1.40	-	1.27	1.61
2011(4)	1.13	-	-	1.25
2012(1)	0.67	0.52	-	-

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2012(1), before that date fitted values, *realised GDP: seco releases (left: September 1, 2011, right: March 1, 2012).

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2011 (4), Forecast: 2012 (1)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

SPECIAL FEATURE: «KOF surprise indicator» forecasts evaluation makes it to ISF 2012 in Boston! Read more»

Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties

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NOTES
Previous update	2012-02-15
Standard error of regression*	0.561
Literature:	KOF working paper 212
Business cycle data	Please ask for your personal copy!
History	2012-02-15 release
	2011-11-16 release
	2011-08-29 release
	2011-05-24 release
	Complete release history
	First release

*Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.

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