GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2011-11-16
     
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
C M-K  
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
forecast
standard error
realisations*
2011(1)
2.90
-
2.39
2.46
2011(2)
2.64
-
-
2.32
2011(3)
1.50
0.86
-
-
 

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2011(3), before that date fitted values, *realised GDP: seco (left: May 30, 2011, right: September 1, 2011 releases)

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2011 (2), Forecast: 2011 (3)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

   
  SPECIAL FEATURE: The surprise index has been rebranded as the new «KOF surprise indicator». The «KOF surprise indicator» is going to be published even sooner than before. It will be made available approximately in the middle of the last month in each quarter. Please update your bookmarks!
   
  Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties
 

forecast

 
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NOTES  
Previous update
Standard error of regression*
0.756
Literature:
Business cycle data Please ask for your personal copy!
History 2011-08-29 release
  2011-05-24 release
  2011-02-22 release
  2010-11-29 release
  Complete release history
  First release
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.
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