GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2011-08-26
     
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
   
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
forecast
standard error
realisations*
2010(4)
3.10
-
3.11
3.10
2011(1)
3.28
-
-
2.39
2011(2)
2.40
0.53
-
-
   

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2011(2), before that date fitted values, *realised GDP: seco (left: March 1, 2011, right: May 30, 2011 releases)

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2011 (1), Forecast: 2011 (2)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

     
    Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties
   

 
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NOTES  
Previous update
Standard error of regression*
0.756
Literature:
Business cycle data Please ask for your personal copy!
History 2011-05-24 release
  2011-02-22 release
  2010-11-29 release
  2010-08-30 release
  Complete release history
  First release
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.
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