SWISS GDP Forecast Q3/12

GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2013-08-14

Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast

Date	Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
	forecast	standard error	realisations*
2012(4)	1.20	-	1.4	1.4
2013(1)	1.13	-	-	1.1
2013(2)	1.20	0.48	-	-

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2013(2), fitted values otherwise, *realised GDP: seco releases (left: February 28, 2013, right: July 1, 2013).

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2013 (1), Forecast: 2013 (2)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties

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NOTES
Previous update	2013-05-15
Standard error of regression*	0.903
Literature	KOF working paper 212
Business cycle data	Ask for your personal copy.
History	2013-05-15 release
	2013-02-13 release
	2012-11-14 release
	2012-08-15 release
	Complete release history
	First release
Next release	2013-11-13

*Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.

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