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GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification |
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Release 2022-02-28 |
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Figure: Business cycle indicator and Swiss GDP with forecast |
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Forecast
update. The most recent reading of the «KOF Surprise Indicator» shows an uptick to -0.013 pointing to a healthy GDP growth in the fourth quarter 2021. Over the course of the year Swiss GDP expanded by 3.75 percent. |
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Table:
Swiss real gross domestic product with
forecast |
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Date |
Year-to-year growth (%) of
Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP) |
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fitted / forecast |
standard error |
seco estimates* |
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2021(2) |
7.42 |
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7.74 |
7.98 |
| 2021(3) |
2.58 |
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3.80 |
| 2021(4) |
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0.67 |
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3.72 |
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Sources: Own calculations, forecast
for 2021(4), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: September 2, 2021, right: February 28, 2022).
Sample: 2000 (2) - 2021 (3),
Forecast: 2022 (4), SECO data
Note: Forecast obtained by best
nowcasting model. |
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Nowcast.
Switzerland adds another quarter to its strong bounce back from the Corona crisis despite mounting pressure on the Swiss Franc to appreciate. |
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Partly owed to the strengthening currency inflation remains modest due to lower import prices. |
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Outlook.
The assault on Ukraine that started last week has now replaced Corona and supply chain worries. Russia's agression will likely push up the Swiss currency due to its safe haven reputation forcing the Swiss National Bank to buy even more foreign assets in order to contain the upward move. |
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Nonetheless, Swiss exporters will see their margins deteriorate which likely leads to reduced investment and hiring. On the upside, foreign central banks may postpone rate hikes in response to the crisis limiting the fallout of the war and supporting foreign demand for Swiss output. |
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Given the unprecedented scale of the aggression the most probable result we be a significant slowing of the global economic expansion with Switzerland feeling its according repercussions. |
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Special feature: Theory and empirics. »Empirical macroeconomics« is usually understood as a »microfounded« modelling technique of macro data that's based on sound empirical evidence. |
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In the first ever empirical investigation into whether or not the »microfoundations« are supported by observable data to an extent similar to which the macro data is employed we confirm that leading researchers do not even intend to back up their »microfoundations« with actual data. |
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The evidence thus highlights once again the fundamental problems with concurrent »Empirical macroeconomics« of the DSGE type. Read more» |
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Special release note: Due to technical issues this release does build in concurrent SECO data instead of SECO's previous updates. The most recent SECO data point does not enter the nowcast though. |
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*Standard error of regression refers
to baseline model published in the first release. |
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Quarterly
nowcast update. Order your free personal quarterly email
alert with the latest GDP estimate based on the «KOF surprise
indicator». Subscribe here»
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