SWISS GDP Forecast Q4/13

GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2014-02-12

Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast

Date	Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
	forecast	standard error	seco estimates*
2013(2)	1.54	-	2.5	2.5
2013(3)	2.47	-	-	1.9
2013(4)	2.10	0.51	-	-

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2013(4), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: September 2, 2013, right: November 28, 2013).

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2013 (3), Forecast: 2013 (4)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties

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NOTES
Previous update	2013-08-14
Standard error of regression*	1.018
Literature	KOF working paper 212
Business cycle data	Ask for your personal copy.
History	2013-11-13 release
	2013-08-14 release
	2013-05-15 release
	2013-02-13 release
	Complete release history
	First release
Next release	2014-05-14

*Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.