GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2014-08-13
     
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
 
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
forecast
standard error
seco estimates*
2013(4)
2.23
-
1.7
1.7
2014(1)
3.28
-
-
2.0
2014(2)
0.55
-
-
 

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2014(2), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: February 27, 2014, right: May 27, 2014).

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2014 (1), Forecast: 2014 (2)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

   
   
   
  Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties
 

forecast

 
«home   Performance evaluation update. The «KOF surprise indicator's» forecasting power has been reviewed. See the results presented at the PANEL SURVEY DATA AND BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS conference here»
     
   
NOTES  
Previous update
Standard error of regression*
1.002
Literature
Business cycle data Ask for your personal copy.
History
 
 
 
  Complete release history
  First release
Next release 2014-11-12
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.
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