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Swiss GDP defies expectations |
TEST |
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Release 2022-11-16 |
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Figure: Business cycle indicator and Swiss GDP with forecast |
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Table:
Swiss real gross domestic product with
forecast |
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Date |
Year-to-year growth (%) of
Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP) |
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fitted / forecast |
standard error |
seco estimates* |
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2022(1) |
1.88 |
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4.44 |
4.40 |
| 2022(2) |
1.99 |
- |
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2.43 |
| 2022(3) |
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0.67 |
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Sources: Own calculations, forecast
for 2022(3), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: May 30, 2022, right: September 13, 2022).
Sample: 2000 (2) - 2022 (2),
Forecast: 2022 (3), SECO data
Note: Forecast obtained by best
nowcasting model. |
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Nowcast.
In spite of record inflation figures globally, interest rate hikes and the appreciation of the Swiss Franc vis-a-vis the Euro, the currency of its most important tradig partner, Swiss gross domestic product expanded rather impressively in the third quarter. |
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The recent estimate of GDP growth based on the latest «KOF Surprise Indicator» reading amounts to 3.5 percent year on year in 2022, q3. |
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Outlook.
All what it takes to spark a recession is still on the table: the Russian war on Ukraine, China locking down its economy every know and then, elevated prices of commodities, labour and looming energy shortages, inflation and raised interested rates. |
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Therefore, the current resilience of the Swiss economy looks once more like a exception when compared to its western peers. |
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Nonetheless, apart from a stop in currency appreciation there is little room for fundamental optimism that would brighten the still rather gloomy outlook. |
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Special feature: Lecture material. How much state-controled private sector activity is acceptable, our new study «Der Staat als Teilnehmer am Wettbewerb» asks (in German). Read more» |
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*Standard error of regression refers
to baseline model published in the first release. |
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