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Swiss GDP: up 5 percent y-o-y in Q1/2022 |
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Release 2022-05-25 |
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Figure: Business cycle indicator and Swiss GDP with forecast |
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Forecast
update. Despite the war on Ukraine and much worsened ports-clogging Covid-19 restrictions in China the latest rise to -0.011 (up from -0.012, revised) of the «KOF Surprise Indicator» still signals a strong expansion of Swiss GDP y-o-y in the first quarter 2022. |
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Table:
Swiss real gross domestic product with
forecast |
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Date |
Year-to-year growth (%) of
Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP) |
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fitted / forecast |
standard error |
seco estimates* |
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2021(3) |
3.83 |
- |
3.74 |
3.80 |
| 2021(4) |
3.74 |
- |
- |
3.72 |
| 2022(1) |
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0.67 |
- |
- |
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Sources: Own calculations, forecast
for 2022(1), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: September 2, 2021, right: February 28, 2022).
Sample: 2000 (2) - 2022 (4),
Forecast: 2022 (1), SECO data
Note: Forecast obtained by best
nowcasting model. |
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Nowcast.
First quarter GDP growth does not show any signs of negative repercussions of the Russian assault on Ukraine neither of the renewed lockdowns in China. |
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The appreciation of the Swiss Franc in wake of the war and considerable price caps on imports such as food have so far also stemmed inflation. |
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Outlook.
Over the course of the year sanctions against Russia, supply-chain troubles due to China and focussing public spending on military kit will inevitably take its toll also on Swiss value added. |
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Interest rate hikes by the ECB and the FED may offer some relief due to the possibibility of a weakening Franc but those hopes come with inflationary strings attached and depend on the SNB not raising rates in turn. |
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Special feature I: Theories of financial markets. This year's Clark medal honours the insight »that financial market noise, not economic fundamentals, may be the main driver of exchange rates.« |
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This insight has long been supported on these pages and, therefore, the 2022 Clark medal demands a special celebration. Read more» |
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Special feature II: Due Economic indicators and Goodhart's law go agricultural economics! (in German). Read more» |
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*Standard error of regression refers
to baseline model published in the first release. |
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Quarterly
nowcast update. Order your free personal quarterly email
alert with the latest GDP estimate based on the «KOF surprise
indicator». Subscribe here»
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