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Swiss GDP gains momentum |
TEST |
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Figure: Business cycle indicator and Swiss GDP with forecast |
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Forecast update. Swiss GDP continues on its roller coaster path gaining momentum in 2024, second quarter, the «KOF Surprise Indicator» implies. Though the most recent reading of -0.055 (down from -0.051) sees a further drop telling a cautious tale about potentially too optimistic GDP first quarter figures (by SECO) which drive up the second quarter's nowcast. The year-on-year Swiss GDP growth rate is estimated to amount to 0.5 percent in 2024, second quarter. Taken at face value this number suggests that recession has been avoided but prospects remain dim as no impulses for the economy are in sight. |
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Table:
Swiss real gross domestic product with
forecast |
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Date |
Year-to-year growth (%) of
Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP) |
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fitted / forecast |
standard error |
seco estimates* |
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2023(4) |
0.16 |
- |
0.56 |
0.55 |
| 2024(1) |
0.17 |
- |
- |
0.63 |
| 2024(2) |
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0.76 |
- |
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Sources: Own calculations, forecast
for 2024(2), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: February 29, 2024, right: May 29, 2024).
Sample: 2000 (2) - 2024 (1), Forecast: 2024 (2), SECO data
Note: Forecast obtained by best nowcasting model.
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Nowcast.
Defying the threats of currency appreciation the Swiss economy appears to do better now than in the preceding quarters. Estimated year-on-year GDP growth has now left negative territory which raises hopes that a recession could have been avoided. However, yet another drop in the «KOF Surprise Indicator» cautions against over-optimism. |
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Outlook.
The flash crash of stocks around the globe in the middle of summer proves the vulnerability of the global economy. One or two more blows such as delayed interest rate cuts or austerity measures in the U.S. may be enough to turn the tide. |
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Special feature: Saving democracy in East Germany. Elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg are due to be held in early September with the gloomy prospect of chauvinistic, nationalist parties gaining a majority. Immediate action would be necessary to stop their advance. Read now » |
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*Standard error of regression refers
to baseline model published in the first release. |
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Quarterly
nowcast update. Order your free personal quarterly email
alert with the latest GDP estimate based on the «KOF surprise
indicator». Subscribe here»
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