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Swiss GDP gains momentum |
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Figure: Business cycle indicator and Swiss GDP with forecast |
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Forecast update. The Swiss economy has entered a more stable upward trajectory in 2024, third quarter, the «KOF Surprise Indicator» signals. With a stronger -0.045 (up from -0.056) reading than last quarter's rather strong year for Swiss GDP continues to take shape. The year-on-year Swiss GDP growth rate is estimated to amount to 3.1 percent in 2024, third quarter, the largest number seen in a long time. Given dim prospects recorded a quarter before it counts as a positive surprise. |
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Table:
Swiss real gross domestic product with
forecast |
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Date |
Year-to-year growth (%) of
Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP) |
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fitted / forecast |
standard error |
seco estimates* |
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2024(1) |
0.32 |
- |
0.63 |
0.56 |
| 2024(2) |
-0.21 |
- |
- |
1.85 |
| 2024(3) |
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0.78 |
- |
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Sources: Own calculations, forecast
for 2024(3), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: May 29, 2024, right: Sep 3, 2024).
Sample: 2000 (2) - 2024 (2), Forecast: 2024 (3), SECO data
Note: Forecast obtained by best nowcasting model.
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Nowcast.
Despite the political and economic problems of its largest neighbour Germany, the Swiss economy is shining brightly in autumn. Driven by a stronger US dollar and low interest rates, the Swiss economy continues to pick up. Estimated annual GDP growth is recovering fully and could lift the annual result well above the zero line. |
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Outlook.
The newly elected Republican president is expected to define the economic agenda for the global economy in the coming months. Amidst a flurry of vague plans riddled with contradictions, the only certainty seems to be unpredictability. Based on his previous term, "protective" measures could become a reality, potentially dealing a significant blow to export-oriented Switzerland. However, a possible spending spree may also be on the horizon, positioning Switzerland as a potential beneficiary. |
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Domestically, reports of large-scale layoffs driven by elevated energy costs and currency appreciation suggest that the current moment of optimism may be a fleeting one, unlikely to be repeated in the near future.
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Special feature: Uncertainty and Economics goes podcast! Enjoy a deep dive into the role of uncertainty in the economy and in economics powered by AI. Tune in now» |
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*Standard error of regression refers
to baseline model published in the first release. |
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Quarterly
nowcast update. Order your free personal quarterly email
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