NEWS archive
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  Date Topic Details
2014-11-12 Quantification Forecast update. Swiss economic performance remains steady at a moderate growth rate the KOF Surprise Indicator signals. The new indicator value reads -0.024 in 2014, third quarter, down from -0.019 in the previous quarter indicating an expansion of GDP of about 1.4 percent percent y-o-y. Details»
2014-08-13 Quantification Forecast update. The KOF Surprise Indicator for measuring Swiss economic dynamics declined for the first time in the past five quarters. The new value of -0.019 (2014, 1st quarter: -0.017) indicates a continued expansion of the Swiss economy yet at a slower pace. Based on the new «KOF Surprise Indicator» value the annual real GDP growth amounts to only 0.9 per cent. This rate is down from 3.3 per cent in the first quarter 2014. Details»
2014-06-12 Law and Economics Call for papers. DETAILHANDEL UND OLIGOPOL. Latest updates on relative market powers in the Swiss retail industry. Research report (in German) Details»
2014-05-26 Quantification Registration open. PANEL SURVEY DATA AND BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS Registration for the workshop is now open. Details»
2014-03-22 Quantification Forecast update. The KOF Surprise Indicator for measuring Swiss economic dynamics gains momentum climbing to -0.018 in 2014, first quarter, its highest reading since 2008. The Swiss economy expanded by 3.3 percent y-o-y. Details»
2014-04-27 Quantification Call for papers. PANEL SURVEY DATA AND BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS We call for papers on any aspect of business tendency surveys. Special consideration will be given to contributions to new methods and applications for panel survey data. Innovative applications to business cycle analysis and economic modeling are also very welcome. Details»
2014-03-22 Law and Economics Call for papers. COMPETITION POLICY: RECENT TRENDS IN THE MENA REGION AND IN EUROPE We call for papers with a special emphasis on theoretical and empirical investigations of competition policies in the MENA region and in Europe. Papers with an economic or a legal focus are equally welcomed but preferences will be given to interdisciplinary contributions. Details»
2014-02-12 Quantification Forecast update. The KOF Surprise Indicator for measuring Swiss economic dynamics remained at a strong -0.026 in 2013, last quarter. The Swiss economy expanded by 2.1 percent in 2013 yet no further acceleration is to be expected. Details»
2013-11-13 Quantification Forecast update. The KOF Surprise Indicator for measuring Swiss economic dynamics increased again in the third quarter of 2013. Its new value of -0.026 is the highest since the end of 2011. This new reading of the indicator implies a moderately accelerated expansion of the Swiss economy. Details»
2013-10-31 Financial markets Die Börse ist kein Kasino (The trading floor is not a «Casino», in German.) - ab sofort auch auf Wikipedia. Details»
2013-8-14 Quantification Forecast update. The Swiss economy continued on its slow but steady expansionary path also in the second quarter 2013 according to the KOF Surprise Indicator for measuring Swiss economic dynamics. The Indicator stabilised at -0.03 up from -0.05 a quarter ago. The growth of the Swiss Economy is thus expected to continue at low level. Details»
2013-08-08 Publications Visibility. «A note on the Carlson-Parkin Method» has been found among the 5 percent most popular downloads over the past 12 months on the IDEAS research network. «The Swiss Disease: Facts and Artefacts» enters the top 5 percent for citations. Details»
2013-5-15 Quantification Forecast update. Declining to -0.05 the «KOF surprise indicator» continued its volatile downward path in the first quarter.
Based on this latest indicator value the estimate for year-on-year Swiss real GDP growth amounts to 1.2 percent. The Swiss economy thus seems to enter a period of more modest expansion. Details»
2013-02-13 Quantification Forecast update. The «KOF surprise indicator» for measuring Swiss economic performance bid farewell to 2012 with an uptick. Its latest value of -0.03 signals a moderate but steady expansion of Swiss value added over the course of the past year. Between 2011, fourth quarter and 2012, fourth quarter, real GDP increased by 2.3 percent (Q3 2012: 1.0) according to estimates obtained with the «surprise indicator». Details»
2012-11-14 Quantification Forecast update. The «KOF surprise indicator» for tracking the Swiss business cycle fell back to -0.04 in the third quarter of 2012. This latest move may be an indication that Switzerland eventually feels the burden of the elevated exchange rate and widespread weakness of the European economy.
Based on the new indicator value the latest estimate for 2012, third quarter GDP growth amounts to 1 per cent on a year-on-year scale. Due to the severe revision of Swiss GDP figures in summer 2012, it is not sensible to compare this estimate to previous figures. Details»
2012-08-29 Quantification CIRET's «Isaac Kerstenetzky Award» extends a honorable mention to Catching a floating treasure: A forecasting experiment in real time. marking the second consecutive recognition of exceptional achievements by Eva Köberl.
2012-08-15 Quantification Forecast update. The «KOF surprise indicator» which tracks the Swiss business cycle regained some lost territory in the second quarter of 2012. The new value of -0.02 raises hopes that for the time being Switzerland may evade the fate of anaemic growth that seem to take roots in the rest of Europe. Based on the new indicator value the latest estimate for 2012, second quarter GDP growth amounts to 3.1 percent (Q1 2012: 1.4) on a year-on-year scale. Details»
2012-02-08 Financial markets Published! A new interpretation of known facts: The case of two-way causality between trading and volatility in Economic Modelling. Details»
2012-02-07 Quantification Evaluated. The first ever genuine forecast experiment for evaluating quarterly GDP estimates is now online available! Read why and how the KOF Surprise Indicator does so well when it comes to forecasting economic activity. Details»
2012-01-12 Financial markets Forthcoming! A new interpretation of known facts: The case of two-ways causality between trading and volatility in Economic Modelling
2011-11-16 Quantification Forecast update. Economic growth slows down according to the latest reading of the newly re-branded «KOF surprise indicator» Its latest value of just -0.04 is below its long-term average for the first time the last five quarters. The estimate of year-on-year GDP growth based on the indicator amounts to a weak 1.5 percent which compares to 2.4 percent in the previous quarter Details»
2011-09-21 Financial markets Published! Our economy in Modern Economy. Downloadable!
2011-09-02 Financial markets Published! The forward bias puzzle: Still unsolved has now been published by Elsevier's Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money. Downloadable!
2011-08-29 Quantification Forecast update. The latest reading of the «surprise index» shows an essentially constant value of -0.02 which indicates the end of the period of accelerating growth. The growth estimate for 2011, second quarter based on the «surprise index» of 2.4 percent in comparison to a year earlier points to an onset of a cyclical slowdown of the Swiss economy. Details»
2011-07-04 Financial markets The forward bias puzzle: Still unsolved now online available at Elsevier's Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money. Downloadable!
2011-05-24 Quantification Forecast update. After a brief decline the «surprise index» is going strong again at -0.019, its highest value ever since its all-time trough in 2009, second quarter. The latest uptick is evidence for a continued expansion of the Swiss economy. The estimate for 2011, first quarter based on the surprise index points to an expansion of the Swiss economy by 3.9 percent in comparison to a year earlier. Details»
2011-05-16 Teaching Students have shortlisted my name for the 2011 «Credit Suisse Award for Best Teaching». Thanks to all my students for this extaordinary honour!
2011-02-22 Quantification Forecast update. The surprise index is slightly down to -0.026 (from -0.02 in 2010 3rd quarter). This is the first decline after five quarters with positive growth in a row and foreshadows a slowdown of economic growth in the future. The estimate for 2010 based on the surprise index points to an expansion of the Swiss economy by 3.5 percent. Details»
2011-01-03 Quantification «A Note on the Carlson-Parkin Method of Quantifying Qualitative Data» makes SSRN top ten list for ERN: Collecting, Estimating, & Organizing Microeconomic Data. Read also the journal publication (Economics Letters) here»
2010-11-29 Quantification Forecast update. During the third quarter the Swiss economy saw again a steady expansion. The surprise index which tracks the performance of the Swiss economy increased in the third quarter 2010 to -0.02 (2010 2nd quarter: -0.31). The corresponding growth rate estimate points to a largely constant speed of expansion of 2.8 percent compared to a year earlier. This figure is down by 0.2 from 3.0 compared to the second quarter of this year. Details»
2010-10-29 Quantification CESifo conference on Macroeconomics and Survey data: Presentation of Business cycle analysis - A Markov-chain Assessment».
2010-10-24 Quantification Eva Koeberl and Sarah Lein receive the 2010 Young Economist «Isaac Kerstenetzky Award» for their outstanding paper The NIRCU and the Phillips curve
  2010-10-19 Fiscal Policy A debt brake for Hesse? Read why the current proposal may not be optimal, and why we should pay special attention to regional business cycles (in German)! A collection of all expert statements can be found here.
2010-08-19 Quantification Forecast update. The surprise index measuring the performance of the Swiss economy increased in the second quarter 2010 a fourth time in a row. The new reading of -0.31 (up 0.09 from -0.04) indicates a sustained economic recovery though at a slower pace. The derived year-on-year growth rate estimate is down at 2.2 percent in 2010 Q2 (2010 Q1: 3.1) which confirms the moderation of economic dynamics predicted in the previous release. Details»
2010-08-13 Financial markets Uncertainty - a blind spot in economics now online available at Oekonomenstimme.org (in German) .
2010-06-24 Quantification Conference Quantification of qualitative data now on!
2010-05-21 Quantification Forecast update Economic growth accelerated again in the first quarter of this year compared to the previous year. The surprise index which flags year-on-year business cycle dynamics rose to -.040 (up by 0.04 from -.044). This increase is the lowest since the start of the recovery in 2009 Q3 hinting at the possibility of lower growth rates in the future. Year-on-year growth is estimated at a healthy 3.1 percent in 2010 Q1 (2009 Q4: 1.00 ).
2010-04-21 Quantification Published: "You CAN Carlson-Parkin" Economics Letters article now online!
2010-04-21 Quantification "You CAN Carlson-Parkin" Economics Letters' proofs now online available!
2010-03-15 Quantification Quantification of qualitative data" conference registration has now started!
2010-02-28 Quantification Forecast update Yet another quarter of an impressive economic recovery in Switzerland. The business cycle indicator rose again by 0.02 to -.04 (up from -.06) confirming the end of the recession. Year-on-year growth turned positive reaching 2009 Q4: 0.92 after four quarters with negative growth.
2010-02-05 Quantification Call for papers out now! Quantification of qualitative data conference: June 24-26 in Zurich. Submit, take part, support!
2009-11-26 Quantification "The information content of qualitative survey data" now online available! Download your personal copy!
2009-11-26 Quantification Forecast update Economic activity in Switzerland was weak again in the third quarter. However, the business cycle indicator (now at -.062, up by 0.02 from -.082) flags economic recovery may be at the doorsteps. Year-on-year growth bounces back to 2009 Q3: -0.44 from -2.61 in 2009 second quarter.
2009-10-28 Financial markets Latest presentation slides now available: "Puzzle Solver" and "Swiss views on the financial crisis".
2009-10-22 Financial markets "Swiss views on the financial crisis": presentation to HUBS students.
2009-10-21 Financial markets "Puzzle solver": invited talk at Hull University Business School. Slides now available.
  2009-10-16 Financial markets "Puzzle solver" and "Our economy" available online.
  2009-08-24 Quantification Forecast update The business cycle indicator signals another strong decline in Swiss GDP in the second quarter. Year-on-year growth drops to 2009 Q2: -2.75 (down by 0.4 from -2.36 in 2009 first quarter). The indicator value is now at -0.083 (Q1: -0.069).
  2009-08-20 Financial markets Die Börse ist kein Kasino - heute in der Neuen Zürcher Zeitung:. (The trading floor is not a "Casino", in German.)
  2009-06-27 Quantification The SSES Young Economist Award goes to Sarah Lein and Eva Köberl (the pillars of the project Quantification of qualitative data) for their paper: The Capacity Utilisation, Constraints and price Adjustments under the Microscope
  2009-06-22 Financial markets Vom falschen Gebrauch des Begriffs "Kasino-Kapitalismus" und ein neuer Ansatz zum Verständnis der Finanzmarktkrise. (On falsly blaming the "casino" for financial market madness and a new approach to understanding the crisis; in German.)
  2009-05-30 Financial markets Canadian Economic Society Annual Meeting (Toronto): Presentation "Rationally irrational"
  2009-05-12 Quantification Forecast update Further decrease of the business cycle indicator to a historical low of -.069 in the first quarter 2009 (down by 0.02 from -.048 in 2008 fourth quarter). The revised forecast for Swiss year-to-year GDP growth reads: 2009 Q1: -2.68%.
  2009-05-08 Financial markets Invited talk to the chair of Prof. Dr. Hens (Uni Zurich): "Rationally irrational"
  2009-05-04 Fiscal policy Expert hearing at the German Parliament. See my expert statement.
  2009-04-11 Quantification UCR Conference Business Cycles: Theoretical and Empirical Advances: Measuring Business Cycles: A Markov-Chain Approach, (see this link for impressions of the conference).
  2009-03-31 Econometric Theory The Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics has accepted Biased estimation in a simple extension of a standard error correction model for publication (see WP version)
  2009-03-25 Financial markets Puzzle Solver accepted for presentation at the Canadian Economic Association annual meeting 2009 in Toronto and at the Australasian Meeting of the Econometric Society 2009 in Canberra.
  2009-03-20 Financial markets Humboldt-Copenhagen Conference 2009: Recent developments in Financial Econometrics, presentation of Puzzle Solver
  2009-03-18 Quantification The Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis has accepted The information content of qualitative survey data, see the WP version KOF WP 168)
  2009-03-10 Quantification The SSRN repository has recognised the latest of our working papers (Business Cycle Measurement with Semantic Filtering (KOF wp212)) as one of the ten most popular on the DCDEM list. Read more»
  2009-02-08 Switzerland and EU Switzerland has approved access to the Swiss labour market for EU member countries' citizens of Bulgaria and Romania - A good opportunity for all advocats of EU to consider the benefits of direct democracy: Read more».
  2009-02-06 Quantification Forecast update Indicator down to -.048 in the fourth quarter 2008. This five year low comes after a robust -.014 in 2008, third quarter. Swiss GDP forecasts up until 2009 first quarter: 2008Q4: -0.26% (down 1.7 from last estimation), 2009 Q1: -0.33% annual GDP growth.
  2009-02-06 Quantification Forecast update Indicator down to -.048 in the fourth quarter 2008. This five year low comes after a robust -.014 in 2008, third quarter. Swiss GDP forecasts up until 2009 first quarter: 2008Q4: -0.26% (down 1.7 from last estimation), 2009 Q1: -0.33% annual GDP growth.
  2009-02-02 Quantification Business Cycle Measurement with Semantic Filtering (KOF wp212) finally published: Detailed description of semantic shock identifiation and its application to Business Cycle Estimation.
  2008-11-14 Quantification KOF-ifo-Wifo "Workshop on Micro Data", please have a look at the time shedule (presentation slides to be added soon).
  2008-11-07 Quantification Forecast update Indicator drops in third quarter to -.014 from -0.007 in the second quarter showing a further slow down in the economy.Swiss GDP: forecasts up until 2008 fourth quarter: Q3: 2.18% (down 0.6 from last estimation), 2008 Q4: 1.41% annual GDP growth.
  2008-10-12 Quantification 29th CIRET Conference on "Business Tendency Surveys and Policiy Evaluation" in Santiago de Chile: Talk on "A note on the Carlson-Parking Method of quantifying qulaitative data".
  2008-09-27 Switzerland and EU Invited talk "An alternative way to Europe - An alternative for Europe?" at the 14th workshop Euromemorandum, Brussels 2008.
  2008-09-18 Quantification The SSRN repository has rated three of our working papers (A Note on Carlson Parkin, Speed of adjustment , What did you say?) all-time top ten in their respective area. Read more»
  2008-09-11 Financial markets Conference presentation at the 40th meeting of the macro, money and finance research group, London.
  2008-08-15 Quantification Forecast update Swiss GDP: forecasts up until 2008 third quarter: Q2: 2.78% (up 0.6 from last estimation), 2008 Q3: 2.83% annual GDP growth. Indicator signals robust growth at a lower level compared to previous year. See also the special release notes.
  2008-07-29 Quantification Kick-off meeting: Seminar on quantification methods and application marks the official start of the research project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation.
  2008-05-23 Quantification The Swiss National Science Foundation has approved the research proposal Quantification of qualitative data submitted by Dr. Christian Mueller, Prof. Dr. Jan-Egbert Sturm and Prof. Dr. Klaus Neusser.
  2008-05-06 Quantification Forecast update Swiss GDP: forecasts up until 2008 second quarter: Q1: 3.17% (up 0.8 from last estimation), 2008 Q2: 2.14% annual GDP growth. Indicator shows strong sign of economic slowdown.
  2008-03-18 Fiscal policy Protocol of expert hearing available.
  2008-02-14 Fiscal policy Expert hearing of the parliament of North Rhein - Westphalia. See the collection of documents (64. Sitzung am 14. Februar 2008 (Expertengespräch)), my statement, and the catalogue of questions.
  2008-01-24 Quantification Forecast update Swiss GDP: forecasts up until 2008 first quarter: Q4: 2.96% (up 0.1 from last estimation), 2008 Q1: 2.37% annual GDP growth
  2007-12-04 Quantification Forecast update Swiss GDP: forecasts up until 2007 fourth quarter: Q3: 2.86% , Q4: 2.87% annual GDP growth
  2007-11-30 Quantification First release of new business cycle measure including long horizon GDP forecasts up until 2007 fourth quarter.
  2007-10-26 EU constitution An Alternative Route to Europe - An Alternative for Europe? finally published. Read more why the Swiss way may yield lessons for Europe.
  2007-10-04 Temporal disaggregation Updated forecasts of GDP (monthly) up to August 2007 now available. The current forecast includes a comparison to KOF Swiss Economic Institute's autumn GDP forecast !
  2007-10-01 Quantification Application for funding submitted to the Swiss National Fund.
  2007-09-30 Quantification The complete set of working papers has been made available by SSRN.
  2007-08-23 Temporal disaggregation Updated forecasts of GDP (monthly) up to July 2007 now available.
  2007-08-03 Model selection The paper "What billions can't buy" has been accepted for presentation at the Econometrics Society Latin American annual meeting. Bogota Oct 4-6 2007.
  2007-07-31 Temporal disaggregation Updated forecasts of GDP (monthly) and Swiss industrial production (quarterly) up to 2nd quarter 2007 now available
  2007-07-30 Temporal disaggregation Ox code including data example for the temporal disaggregation by maximum likelihood made available. (See the paper: KOF WP 134)
  2007-07 Quantification The three working papers (KOF WP 168, 169, 170) have been accepted for the following forthcoming conferences
  • Statistische Woche (Meeting of the German statisitcal association), Kiel, September 27-30 2007
  • 2nd Munich workshop on survey data analysis, Munich, October 19-20 2007
  • 9th INFER conference, October 12-14, 2007, Loughborough, UK
  2007-07-09 Fiscal policy Transcripts of the statement at the hearing of the upper and lower chambers of the German parliament available.
  2007-06-22 Fiscal policy Statement and short discussion at the hearing of the upper and lower chambers of the German parliament: Aspekte einer Schuldenbegrenzung nach helvetischem Vorbild
  2007-06-07 Financial markets The paper "A median approach to spot foreign exchange rates" has been accepted for presentation at the 2007 QMF conference, December 12-15, Sydney, Australia
       
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